Welcome to the Regional Outook Inland Empire, Beacon Economics' quarterly forecast for the Inland Empire Metropolitan Statistical Area.  This report delivers a clear snapshot of the current state and future outlook of employment, home prices, consumer spending, personal income, and othe leading indicators in this key region of California.

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Finally... IE Labor Markets Beginning To Trend Upwards

The Inland Empire's labor market has finally started to turn the corner and is beginning what will be a long, slow recovery. After falling to a new low in June, total nonfarm employment has been trending upward in recent months. Moreover, after climbing above 14% in June, the unemployment rate has been slowly falling, hitting 13.3% in October – the lowest it has been since 2009, though some of this decline may be a result of job seekers dropping out of the labor force. And while the job recovery has been slow, it is at lease moving in a positive direction, a trend that Beacon Economics predicts will continue into the future.

While still lagging in sectors that are helping to lead the recovery statewide, such as Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services, the Inland Empire has begun to make strides in Construction and the Wholesale Trade industry. Construction, a sector that was hit hard by the recession, has been on the mend in recent months – adding around 1,800 jobs since August, though the numbers are still nowhere near pre-recession levels. Wholesale Trade, aided by increased port activity in nearby Long Beach and Los Angeles, has added slightly more than 2,400 jobs since July.
 

Consumer Spending On The Rise

Taxable sales in the Inland Empire have been consistently growing since reaching their low point in 2009. Indeed, since bottoming out in the second quarter of 2009, taxable sales in the Inland Empire have jumped by just over 17% (through the third quarter of 2011). Before the recession hit, spending activity across the nation was at an unsustainable level and some tempering of American consumption was necessary. Consumers and households began to pay down their debt and push the savings rate back up after it fell to nearly zero. Consumers are now beginning to feel more comfortable spending again. Aided by rising income levels and people moving to the region from coastal areas to find more affordable housing, Beacon Economics expects taxable sales in the Inland Empire to continue its growth trend.